Friday, February 29, 2008

Do Not Try This at Home, All Stunts are Performed by a Trained, Crazed Idiot: Intraday RIMM

This was a shear momentum play in the last 15 minutes of trading today. RIMM was getting sold like crazy (most of it I think are hedges trying to lock in profits for the month of February). Ha ha, do not try this at home:

Buy to Open: 10 puts of RIMM March 100 at $2.96
Sell to Close: 10 puts of RIMM March 100 at $3.10

Gain: $140

You might be wondering, with the DJIA is down almost 300 points and RIMM is down 5 points, why not hold on to those puts? Won't the momentum carry over into Monday? The answer is probably, but there are two things that could go wrong if you are on the put side for Monday:

  1. I believe that RIMM got dumped today so hedge funds can lock in profits for end of the month reports, but what's to say they don't swoop them back up Monday morning? I know I would, sell now, buy back at a later price -- and if you control the market why not right? That will create some huge supply shortages and then sky rocket the stock back up.
  2. Second Bernanke steps in and says "Enough is enough, cut another interest rate now ... or print lots of cash and inject into banks".
  3. I know I said two factors, but here's another big one: Hello? These are March options, starting Monday they start decaying faster and faster everyday.

So given those factors (one macro, another that might as well be a macro) there's no way I am holding onto these. I'll pick them up later if there's a pop on Monday intraday only. Alright everyone, have a great weekend! Monday will be insane.

--Kevin

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